Understanding Complex Systems
by David Berry
Understanding Complex Systems
Complex systems work within the principles of Chaos Theory. That is not to say that a complex system is chaotic or random. Chaos theory is based on mathematical principles that recognize that tiny aspects of something complex can have significant influence. It is like the old children’s story. For want of a nail, the shoe was lost. For want of a shoe, the horse was lost. For want of a horse, the rider was lost. For want of a rider, the battle was lost. For want of the battle, the kingdom was lost. And all for the want of a nail.
While this story has a common sense that seems rather obvious, science generally has a very different approach to the world. The basis of science (and religion) is to understand the universe in a way that allows a person to do things and have some good expectation about how they are going to turn out. The scientific method, which does not really have a concise definition, involves documenting the details of a particular situation and then repeating a sequence of actions within that situation and documenting the results.
The environment is the system. It is best to have a system that has as few outside influences as possible, which would make it a closed system. This means that when you blow smoke rings you want to make sure that the windows are closed and the air conditioning is turned off in order to prove that you can actually create the rings.
The Myth of Small Numbers
The theory behind the “want of a nail” story is that if you can control the system or factors that influence the army, then you won't have little unexpected details mucking up your project. A scientist must make sure that all of the factors that influence an experiment are accounted for, just like each horseman need to double check to make sure the horses are securely shod before going into battle. Details are usually not a big deal unless you don’t pay any attention to them.
In the 1950’s as the potential for computers was just beginning to be understood, it was imagined that if you could plug in enough weather data you could get a computer to predict the weather and possibly provide some clue about controlling it. The computer generated numbers that often had lots of decimal places. The common mathematical practice of the day was to just lop off the tiniest of fractions at the end. They took up extra memory and no one believed that they were significant. For instance, if you add 24.9484443 and 68.4993213445232 you should get virtually the same number as you get by adding 24.948 and 68.499. The difference being less than .001. You might say that this is insignificant.
Banks make transactions every day. Lots of the transactions, like interest, involve a percentage of a certain amount of money, and many times the amounts come up with something less than a penny. Like $124.4566. so who gets that $0.0066 cents? Well, the bank keeps that, and they make millions of dollars a year by keeping the fractions from transactions. One of the first famous cases of computer theft was a bank programmer stealing the “non-existent” fractions of pennies by putting them all in his personal account. Until then most bankers really did not imagine that fractions of pennies actually existed.
The Butterfly Effect
The classic example of Chaos Theory is “The Butterfly Effect.” When you have an environment that is not a closed system, meaning there are things that will influence the outcome of an experiment that you have not measured and included in your documentation, then unexpected results can happen. This could be something as simple as pouring water into a glass, but because there is a crack in the glass that you did not see the water goes onto the table and the result is unexpected. With something like weather the influences are so great that it is impossible to predict exactly what kind of weather will be experienced on a particular day more than a week or so in the future. We can put a LOT of data into our weather predicting computers, but for predictions beyond a day or two there is simply not enough data to yield a definite conclusion.
The Butterfly Effect suggests that the breeze produced by the flap of a butterfly’s wings in China will significantly influence the kind of weather experienced in New York City weeks later. That is not to say that they have really giant butterflies in China, but rather that if there are a lot of factors that would suggest that it will rain in NYC and an equal number of factors that would make it a sunny day, that the breeze of a butterfly’s wings could be the deciding factor. In football terms, the outcome could conceivably be completely different if the coin toss at the beginning of the game goes one way or the other. If something happens on that first play that sets one team back and the other ahead, that could establish a lead that is never overtaken. This goes back to the nail. One nail missing from the shoe of one horse is not a big deal. But if the army blacksmith is really sick and hundreds of nails are missing from hundreds shoes already, there may be one last nail that when lost sets into play a whole range of events that changes the course of history.
We are Stones in the Wall
Since we live in a complex system, each of us is a potential butterfly, coin toss or nail. I like to think of people as stones in the wall. There are big stones and little stones. There are stones at the top and stones in the foundation. Some stones are made of soft stone and others of solid hard stone. If you take any one stone out of the wall, even one in the foundation, it is not likely to make any difference in the stability of the wall. But if many stones are removed, then one stone will be the last critical stone that is removed that makes the whole wall fall down. If the wall is keeping out enemy armies or holding back a raging river, than the failure of the wall has great consequences. Sometimes the last stone might be a little tiny soft stone sitting on the top. When it is removed a critical balance is shifted and bigger stones start to move. The cascade continues until the wall fails. In this way each of us are part of a complex system of humanity. Each of us has a critical potential. Any one person, no matter who they are, could be the last person to make a decision or take a particular action that initiates the beginning of some great event, for either the better or worse.
It is important to remember that if we are a rock in the wall that three things happen. First, the wall cannot exist without all of the rocks, making each rock equally important. Second, there is a potential situation in which any one rock is the last rock to fail and cause the ultimate collapse of the wall. Third, we will never know the full impact of our actions on the total integrity of the wall. Some of what we do will seem insignificant to us, yet have great impact on those around us -- some of whom we may not know.
Our Actions
We interact with all of the other rocks in the wall and have an influence on every other rock, even if we never know it. Most of what we do in life that affects other people the most is through actions we think little about and have results we never know. If we think of God and others first, every little act we do will have that behind it. Some of the results might not seem very positive, but if we pray for guidance and for God’s will to be done, then we can hope that in some way there is a purpose that is in line with God’s purpose.
If we think of ourselves in all of our actions, it is likely that many of our small actions that we do not even notice will have consequences based on our selfishness. At the grandest level, all of our actions are influenced by divine will. Those that crucified Jesus needed to act as they did in order for Jesus to complete his journey and become The Christ. In this way it is impossible to be a bad rock in the wall that needs to be removed. Each rock has a necessary potiential. Even if we are that last rock that fails and signals the collapse, we need to know that no rock is fully responsible.
We need to think of each act as if we will be that last rock. We need to be responsible for ourselves and sometimes other, but as long as we shoulder our responsibilities as best we can, we do not need to be guilty or be a failure when the events around us are overwhelming. Each rock has its place in balancing the stress and tension that keeps the wall up. It is only a problem when too many rocks are missing or fail in the responsibility of supporting the wall.
Other New Humanity Times
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Genetics and the envoronment may have more to do with what we think, our choices and what we do than our free will
The Studies Linking DNA and Behavior
Discussion of the studies and conclusions
Is Genetic Modification Natural?
Is it unnatural to be changing the genes that are the program of life?
